Monday, January 12, 2015

2014-15 Update: What is Butler's Ceiling?



It's been about five months since my last post, but I'm back to share my thoughts on what I've seen from the Butler basketball team this season.  With the return of Roosevelt Jones but the loss of Khyle Marshall, things were not looking overly bright for the Bulldogs this season.  But the emergence of Chris Holtmann, who has brought energy and toughness into a program that was really searching for an identity last season under Brandon Miller, have earned the Bulldogs a top 25 ranking earlier this season.

Butler is currently 12-5 and 2-2 in the much improved Big East.  The main reason is the offensive rebounding advantage they have over many teams with bigger and stronger players, such as Georgetown's Josh Smith and UNC's Kennedy Meeks.  Kam Woods is once again dominating the backboard, and Tyler Wideman is a frequent rebounder in limited minutes.  In my opinion, every single player has met expectations and some have even exceeded them such as Kelan Martin, who brings better offense off the bench this year than Elijah Brown did last year.  Roosevelt Jones could be shooting a higher percentage from the field, but his 6 rebounds and 4 assists per game are helping immensely, as Alex Barlow doesn't have to create as many plays as he did last season.

Kellen Dunham is taking fewer shots than last year, and as a result he is shooting almost 47 percent from beyond the arc.  His shot selection has improved drastically from last year where he felt he had to carry the Bulldogs on offense.  The most recent victory over Xavier shows the growth of this team, as Dunham was a non-factor on offense and the team still scored 88 points.

While I think this team has a good shot at making the NCAA Tournament for the 2nd time in the past 4 years (weird to say that about Butler), I don't think they have the myriad of offensive weapons to get more than a victory or two.  They don't have anyone athletic and versatile as Gordon Hayward, or an interior scorer like Matt Howard.  Andrew Chrabascz might get there by the time he's a senior, but he doesn't have near the post game that Howard had.  Dunham might be a better shooter than Shelvin Mack but he doesn't have the ability to get to the basket.  So when teams are keying in on him in March, he might have to defer to his teammates a little more than Mack did in Butler's 2011 NCAA Championship game run.

I'll try to update this blog a couple more times during the rest of the season, and always, Go Bulldogs!!!