With today's announcement that the Butler vs. Indiana game in the 2012 Crossroads Classic at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, I thought it would be an interesting to preview and compare both teams. I will be doing this by position.
Point Guard: Yogi Ferrell vs. Rotnei Clarke
While Ferrell is a young talented point guard with good court vision and scoring ability, the edge in this matchup has to favor the Senior Rotnei Clarke, who has proven himself to be one of the better scorer's in Division 1 basketball the past four years. With his point guard skills having improved after going against Ronald Nored in practice, Clarke will be ready to lead the Bulldogs this season, and certainly has the edge in this matchup. I am sorry I cannot say more about Ferrell because I have not really seen him play.
Shooting Guard: Jordan Hulls vs. Chase Stigall
It is hard to imagine someone who is only 6'0 at shooting guard, but Hulls is too good to be kept out of the starting lineup. His three point shooting is 20% better than Chase Stigall, and Hulls is a better ball-handler than Stigall. Stigall may have the edge on defense, but overall, Jordan Hulls is the more complete player, and will win the edge in this matchup.
Small Forward: Victor Oladipo vs. Roosevelt Jones
Both players have the ability to get to the basket and finish around the rim, so this is a very close matchup. Roosevelt Jones is a great rebounder for his size, but Oladipo is a great all-around defender. I am going to go with Jones on this one, but that could be slightly biased. Still, he is a better rebounder and a more physical player, which is a style of play that will be rewarded in this game.
Power Forward: Christian Watford vs. Khyle Marshall
While Marshall may be more athletic, Watford is clearly the more complete player offensively. He posses an inside-outside threat that Marshall does not, and has a significant height advantage on Marshall. This matchup should be won easily by Watford.
Center: Cody Zeller vs. Andrew Smith
While both are good rebounders who shoot a high percentage from the field, Zeller is the more physical of the two and the more agressive looking to score in the post. Smith does have the three-point shot that Zeller does not. Still, Andrew Smith will get worn out facing Zeller on a possesion by possession basis, and Zeller will prevail in the end in this matchup.
Sixth Man: Will Sheehey vs. Kellen Dunham
Sheehey started last year when Verdell Jones was injured, but I think he will be very effective as a scoring threat of the bench this season to allow for a three guard lineup. Dunham, like Sheehey has a great shooting stroke, but Sheehey has a height and significant weight advantage on Dunham, and two years of college basketball experience. While both have similar offensive skills, Sheehey's experience will give him the edge in this matchup.
Overall: While Butler can keep this game close for a while, Indiana has too much depth and talent to not win this game. I didn't even mention Maurice Creek, who was on the verge of becoming a star at IU before injuries derailed his career. My final score prediction is: Indiana 83, Butler 67.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Monday, September 24, 2012
Alex Barlow: Next Drew Streicher?
Could Butler Sophomore walk-on Alex Barlow make the same jump for Butler player Drew Streicher made, from walk-on to starter? Barlow averaged 20.0 MPG in Butler's three CBI contests this past March, taking all of Jackson Aldridge's minutes. Barlow averaged 3.0 RPG and 2.0 APG in those three contests, and has a chance to take some of Chrishawn Hopkins' minutes, in addition to possibly stealing some from the turnover-prone Aldridge. While he will not start this year, if he can be effective in minutes off the bench, he has a chance to overtake Aldridge as Butler's point guard of the future, especially if Butler's 2013 recruiting class does not include another point guard.
Where Barlow will win his minutes is on the defensive end, as he is quite pesky despite only being 5'11. He averaged 2.7 steals per game in the three CBI contests. While that is a small sample size, he seems to be someone who could continue to the Butler tradition of strong defensive point guards (Ronald Nored, Shawn Vanzant).
Realistically, Barlow could get maybe 5-10 minutes this year with Rotnei Clarke starting at point guard, and maybe 10-15 minutes as a junior is Aldridge is ineffective/or Chris Harrison-Docks cannot prove himself at the Division 1 level. If he has this progression, Barlow could be a starter by his senior year. While this is certainly far-fetched, it is interesting to think about what walk-ons can mean to a program, both on and off the court.
Where Barlow will win his minutes is on the defensive end, as he is quite pesky despite only being 5'11. He averaged 2.7 steals per game in the three CBI contests. While that is a small sample size, he seems to be someone who could continue to the Butler tradition of strong defensive point guards (Ronald Nored, Shawn Vanzant).
Realistically, Barlow could get maybe 5-10 minutes this year with Rotnei Clarke starting at point guard, and maybe 10-15 minutes as a junior is Aldridge is ineffective/or Chris Harrison-Docks cannot prove himself at the Division 1 level. If he has this progression, Barlow could be a starter by his senior year. While this is certainly far-fetched, it is interesting to think about what walk-ons can mean to a program, both on and off the court.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Offensive Improvements Necessary for Returners
We all know Butler struggled offensively last year. Here is one or two things each returner needs to improve on to become a more complete offensive player.
Jackson Aldridge: TURNOVERS: Yes, the all caps was necessary. His assist to turnover ratio last season was 0.58/1. That is as bad as I have seen in all my years watching basketball, especially for a point guard. How can you have a point guard that turns it over almost twice as much as he gets an assist? No wonder his playing time diminished at the end of last season. He could be the starting point guard in 2013-14, but to do so, he will have to improve his decision making on the court when running the point.
Chase Stigall: Dribble Penetration: While it may seem like it would be 3 point shooting for Chase, the ability to dribble penetrate will cause defenders to give him more space on the perimeter, which would get him better 3 point looks, hopefully improving upon his percentage of under 30% from last season. 78% of his career field goals made are 3 pointers, so attacking the basket would definitely give him a more complete offensive game.
Andrew Smith: Staying Assertive: Smith scored four points or fewer 7 times last season. That is quite outrageous considering is combination of skill and size. Often he would get pushed around in the post, disappearing on the offensive end. If Smith can play a more physical post game like Matt Howard did, he will at least get to the free throw line more than he did last year, which was 4 attempts per game. Be a continual presence in the post while still being able to step out to shoot the 3 will enable Smith to improve upon his 11 points per game average.
Khyle Marshall: Mid-Range Jumper: While it did get better in between his Freshman and Sophomore seasons, it needs to take an even bigger step this season. If defenders are hugging him out on the perimeter concerned about his jump shot, it will allow him to go backdoor for more alley-oops, as he is a very good finisher around the rim. Also, Marshall would score more if he could improve upon his 55% free throw shooting.
Erik Fromm: Low Post Game: Nearly all of Fromm's baskets came from 15 feet and out last season. If Erik can develop some post moves, he will become an excellent inside-outside threat. By doing so, he would get to the free throw line more often. Fromm only attempted 0.8 charity tosses per game in 11.0 mpg, or 2.3 attempts per 30 minutes.
Kameron Woods: Jump Shots and Interior Strength: I gave Woods two areas to improve on because I think he has a ton of potential to become a complete player. Woods' jump shot held him back last year, and is the main reason why his shooting percentage was so low. If he develops a jump shot, like Marshall, he will find more open opportunities in the paint. Woods also needs to get to the free throw line and be more physical and finish around the rim. He only shot 2.0 free throws per 30 minutes, which is quite low, even lower than Fromm.
Roosevelt Jones: Jump Shot and Free Throws: Similar to Woods and Marshall, Jones could become a more complete offensive player by improving his jump shot, and giving it more arc. He is already physical in the paint, so he is truly just a consistent jump shot away from becoming an all-league player. Since he has good touch on his floaters, I see no reason why he cannot consistently hit a 15 foot jump shot.
Not Listed Here: I wanted to include Andrew Smeathers here, but he did not play enough meaningful minutes last season for me to evaluate his game. Same goes for the walk-ons, including Alex Barlow and the Kampen brothers.
Newcomers are also not listed here: Rotnei Clarke, Kellen Dunham, Chris Harrison-Docks, Devontae Morgan, because I have not seen enough of their game to give them an analysis.
Jackson Aldridge: TURNOVERS: Yes, the all caps was necessary. His assist to turnover ratio last season was 0.58/1. That is as bad as I have seen in all my years watching basketball, especially for a point guard. How can you have a point guard that turns it over almost twice as much as he gets an assist? No wonder his playing time diminished at the end of last season. He could be the starting point guard in 2013-14, but to do so, he will have to improve his decision making on the court when running the point.
Chase Stigall: Dribble Penetration: While it may seem like it would be 3 point shooting for Chase, the ability to dribble penetrate will cause defenders to give him more space on the perimeter, which would get him better 3 point looks, hopefully improving upon his percentage of under 30% from last season. 78% of his career field goals made are 3 pointers, so attacking the basket would definitely give him a more complete offensive game.
Andrew Smith: Staying Assertive: Smith scored four points or fewer 7 times last season. That is quite outrageous considering is combination of skill and size. Often he would get pushed around in the post, disappearing on the offensive end. If Smith can play a more physical post game like Matt Howard did, he will at least get to the free throw line more than he did last year, which was 4 attempts per game. Be a continual presence in the post while still being able to step out to shoot the 3 will enable Smith to improve upon his 11 points per game average.
Khyle Marshall: Mid-Range Jumper: While it did get better in between his Freshman and Sophomore seasons, it needs to take an even bigger step this season. If defenders are hugging him out on the perimeter concerned about his jump shot, it will allow him to go backdoor for more alley-oops, as he is a very good finisher around the rim. Also, Marshall would score more if he could improve upon his 55% free throw shooting.
Erik Fromm: Low Post Game: Nearly all of Fromm's baskets came from 15 feet and out last season. If Erik can develop some post moves, he will become an excellent inside-outside threat. By doing so, he would get to the free throw line more often. Fromm only attempted 0.8 charity tosses per game in 11.0 mpg, or 2.3 attempts per 30 minutes.
Kameron Woods: Jump Shots and Interior Strength: I gave Woods two areas to improve on because I think he has a ton of potential to become a complete player. Woods' jump shot held him back last year, and is the main reason why his shooting percentage was so low. If he develops a jump shot, like Marshall, he will find more open opportunities in the paint. Woods also needs to get to the free throw line and be more physical and finish around the rim. He only shot 2.0 free throws per 30 minutes, which is quite low, even lower than Fromm.
Roosevelt Jones: Jump Shot and Free Throws: Similar to Woods and Marshall, Jones could become a more complete offensive player by improving his jump shot, and giving it more arc. He is already physical in the paint, so he is truly just a consistent jump shot away from becoming an all-league player. Since he has good touch on his floaters, I see no reason why he cannot consistently hit a 15 foot jump shot.
Not Listed Here: I wanted to include Andrew Smeathers here, but he did not play enough meaningful minutes last season for me to evaluate his game. Same goes for the walk-ons, including Alex Barlow and the Kampen brothers.
Newcomers are also not listed here: Rotnei Clarke, Kellen Dunham, Chris Harrison-Docks, Devontae Morgan, because I have not seen enough of their game to give them an analysis.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Breakout Player?
Even with many returning faces, there are many players who could have a breakout season this year? While I do not think any particular player will have this type of season, there are still players who have the potential to do so. Here are the options:
1. Any of the four big men. In my opinion, Andrew Smith, Khyle Marshall, Kam Woods, and Erik Fromm all underachieved last season. Erik Fromm has the potential to become a player similar to Erik Murphy at Florida, a great consistent 3 point shooter who can really space the floor, and they will need him to do that more with the loss of Hopkins. Khyle Marshall has faced very few players in his career who are more athletic than he is (UDM's Doug Anderson may be an exception). Even at 6'6, his athleticism on alley-oops and a mid range jump shot that is continuing to develop could make Marshall at 13-14 ppg guy if his effort and performance are consistent. Last year, many expected Andrew Smith to become the next Matt Howard, and that did not happen. Those expectations were slightly high, but expecting more than 11 points per game would have been realistic. Smith could benefit the most from Rotnei Clarke's perimeter prowess, and as more attention is focused around the perimeter, Smith could have the opportunity to score a lot more in the post. Why has Kam Woods ever shot a jumper, he needs to realize his strengths and athleticism around the rim. It is not an accident that he shot under 40% from the field, which is terrible for someone his size. Even if he doesn't score a lot of points, he can make his presence felt even more on the defensive end this season.
2. Jackson Aldridge. This guy was supposed to be the point guard of the future for Butler, similar to fellow Aussie Matthew Dellavedova at St. Mary's. However, he lost all of his playing time to a walk-on in March of last season. He has the potential to be a double digit scorer if he is making threes and floaters in the lane, while still making smart decisions on passes. I hope to see a lot more from him in the future.
Any player could really go on this list, but these five guys are the first ones that came to mind.
1. Any of the four big men. In my opinion, Andrew Smith, Khyle Marshall, Kam Woods, and Erik Fromm all underachieved last season. Erik Fromm has the potential to become a player similar to Erik Murphy at Florida, a great consistent 3 point shooter who can really space the floor, and they will need him to do that more with the loss of Hopkins. Khyle Marshall has faced very few players in his career who are more athletic than he is (UDM's Doug Anderson may be an exception). Even at 6'6, his athleticism on alley-oops and a mid range jump shot that is continuing to develop could make Marshall at 13-14 ppg guy if his effort and performance are consistent. Last year, many expected Andrew Smith to become the next Matt Howard, and that did not happen. Those expectations were slightly high, but expecting more than 11 points per game would have been realistic. Smith could benefit the most from Rotnei Clarke's perimeter prowess, and as more attention is focused around the perimeter, Smith could have the opportunity to score a lot more in the post. Why has Kam Woods ever shot a jumper, he needs to realize his strengths and athleticism around the rim. It is not an accident that he shot under 40% from the field, which is terrible for someone his size. Even if he doesn't score a lot of points, he can make his presence felt even more on the defensive end this season.
2. Jackson Aldridge. This guy was supposed to be the point guard of the future for Butler, similar to fellow Aussie Matthew Dellavedova at St. Mary's. However, he lost all of his playing time to a walk-on in March of last season. He has the potential to be a double digit scorer if he is making threes and floaters in the lane, while still making smart decisions on passes. I hope to see a lot more from him in the future.
Any player could really go on this list, but these five guys are the first ones that came to mind.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Farewell, Chrishawn Hopkins
Boy, was tonight a great night to be on Twitter.
While it is not certain what exactly he did wrong, Butler announced on Wednesday that junior guard Chrishawn Hopkins has been dismissed from Butler University for a violation of team rules. A devastating blow to a team looking to contend in its inaugural season in the A-10.
What does this mean for Butler's rotation?
Considering that neither Freshmen (Morgan and Harrison-Docks) was expected to be in the rotation, that just shows how deep a team Butler was.
With Rotnei Clarke and Roosevelt Jones having almost essentially clinched two of the three guard spots, lets see who could take the other spot. (Butler has always had a 3 guard rotation under Brad Stevens, although it could be argued that Jones is a forward).
Two Legitimate Options
Option A: Chase Stigall
My preference over option B, Chase would bring senior leadership and defense to a backcourt that will need some 3 point shooting with Hopkins gone, so that teams do not zero in on Rotnei Clarke. While he may not be as good a shooter as option B, he's been in the program four years longer than option B, and is much more physically ready on the defensive end to start for the Bulldogs.
Option B: You guessed it, Kellen Dunham
Butler has only had one freshman starter in the last three seasons, but Dunham now has a chance to become the second. A better shooter than Chase Stigall, he is not a strong as Chase and certainly a worse defender.
The starter between these two will be determined by Butler's needs on a specific night. If they need scoring, Dunham will play more, and if they need defense, Stigall should start and play the bulk of the minutes.
After Jones, Dunham, Stigall, and Clarke, there will be the two freshman and Jackson Aldridge behind them. That's still a very deep bench, and while Butler will miss Hopkins' play-making ability, they shouldn't be affected too much by his absence.
Update as I was writing this blog: http://blogs.indystar.com/recruitingcentral/2012/09/12/release-from-hopkins-family-on-butler-dismissal/
This article is from Hopkins' legal guardian. It sounds as though it was not one major rules violation but a series of small rules violations, similar to former UCLA forward Reeves Nelson.
While it is not certain what exactly he did wrong, Butler announced on Wednesday that junior guard Chrishawn Hopkins has been dismissed from Butler University for a violation of team rules. A devastating blow to a team looking to contend in its inaugural season in the A-10.
What does this mean for Butler's rotation?
Considering that neither Freshmen (Morgan and Harrison-Docks) was expected to be in the rotation, that just shows how deep a team Butler was.
With Rotnei Clarke and Roosevelt Jones having almost essentially clinched two of the three guard spots, lets see who could take the other spot. (Butler has always had a 3 guard rotation under Brad Stevens, although it could be argued that Jones is a forward).
Two Legitimate Options
Option A: Chase Stigall
My preference over option B, Chase would bring senior leadership and defense to a backcourt that will need some 3 point shooting with Hopkins gone, so that teams do not zero in on Rotnei Clarke. While he may not be as good a shooter as option B, he's been in the program four years longer than option B, and is much more physically ready on the defensive end to start for the Bulldogs.
Option B: You guessed it, Kellen Dunham
Butler has only had one freshman starter in the last three seasons, but Dunham now has a chance to become the second. A better shooter than Chase Stigall, he is not a strong as Chase and certainly a worse defender.
The starter between these two will be determined by Butler's needs on a specific night. If they need scoring, Dunham will play more, and if they need defense, Stigall should start and play the bulk of the minutes.
After Jones, Dunham, Stigall, and Clarke, there will be the two freshman and Jackson Aldridge behind them. That's still a very deep bench, and while Butler will miss Hopkins' play-making ability, they shouldn't be affected too much by his absence.
Update as I was writing this blog: http://blogs.indystar.com/recruitingcentral/2012/09/12/release-from-hopkins-family-on-butler-dismissal/
This article is from Hopkins' legal guardian. It sounds as though it was not one major rules violation but a series of small rules violations, similar to former UCLA forward Reeves Nelson.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Conference Schedule Released
The A-10 released the complete schedule for men's basketball.
Here is Butler's conference schedule (Unfortunately I had to keep the Non-League Gonzaga game in this in order to keep a smooth chart):
Date Opponent/TV Time
Here is Butler's conference schedule (Unfortunately I had to keep the Non-League Gonzaga game in this in order to keep a smooth chart):
Date Opponent/TV Time
| Jan. 9 | at Saint Joseph's * | TBA | ||||
| Jan. 12 | at Dayton * | 2:00 PM | ||||
| A-10 TV | ||||||
| Jan. 16 | Richmond * | TBA | ||||
| Jan. 19 | Gonzaga | 9:00 PM | ||||
| ESPN | ||||||
| Jan. 23 | at La Salle * | TBA | ||||
| Jan. 26 | Temple * | 6:00 PM | ||||
| ESPN2 | ||||||
| Jan. 31 | at Saint Louis * | 9:00 PM | ||||
| CBS SN | ||||||
| February | ||||||
| Feb. 2 | Rhode Island * | 4:00 PM | ||||
| CBS SN | ||||||
| Feb. 6 | St. Bonaventure * | TBA | ||||
| CBS SNR | ||||||
| Feb. 9 | at George Washington * | TBA | ||||
| Feb. 13 | Charlotte * | TBA | ||||
| Feb. 16 | at Fordham * | 4:00 PM | ||||
| CBS SN | ||||||
| Feb. 19 | Duquesne * | TBA | ||||
| Feb. 22 | Saint Louis * | 7:00 PM | ||||
| ESPNU | ||||||
| March | ||||||
| Mar. 2 | at VCU * | 12:00 PM | ||||
| ESPN | ||||||
| Mar. 7 | at Massachusetts * | 7:00 PM | ||||
| A-10 TV | ||||||
| Mar. 9 | Xavier * | 2:00 PM | ||||
| CBS SN | ||||||
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